Bitcoin may be quietly preparing for its next major advance. Despite recent downward pressure this week, a cryptocurrency analyst has identified a weekly chart formation that last emerged in 2023, just before BTC initiated a bull run that more than doubled its valuation.
Currently changing hands near $76,000, BTC hovers just above its 50-period weekly moving average (MA), which sits around $75,500. This follows a rejection at the 100-period weekly MA near $87,400, leaving the cryptocurrency compressed between these two key technical levels.
The analyst notes that Bitcoin finds itself in the exact same position it occupied in 2023. At that time, BTC spent several months consolidating between the 50-week and 100-week moving averages prior to executing a breakout that ignited a new bull market cycle.
Market participants are now watching to see if Bitcoin will mirror that historical trajectory.
The outcomes of that previous occurrence left a significant impression.
How The 2023 Setup Played Out
Throughout the majority of 2023, Bitcoin traded sideways. Between mid-March and mid-October, prices remained largely confined within a narrow band of roughly $24,000 to $28,000 as the market worked to recover from the 2022 collapse.
Conditions shifted rapidly on October 23, 2023, when BTC surged past its July peak of approximately $31,800 to establish a new 2023 record and 52-week high. The upward surge punished bearish traders, inflicting $86 million in liquidations on crypto short positions in a single session.
By the following day, Bitcoin crossed the $35,000 threshold for the first time since May 2022. This momentum was primarily fueled by rising optimism surrounding the imminent approval of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, combined with short liquidations and consistent institutional accumulation, as detailed in this breakdown of why Bitcoin was skyrocketing to $35,000.
The upward trend persisted. BTC pushed back past $39,000 in early December, broke through $44,000 shortly thereafter, and concluded 2023 with a gain of approximately 156%.
Fundamental milestones subsequently validated the breakout. On January 10, 2024, the SEC greenlit 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, and by March 2024, Bitcoin climbed to fresh all-time highs surpassing $73,000.
Bitcoin Is Back Between The Same Moving Averages
Looking ahead to 2026, the weekly chart displays striking parallels.
In late September, Bitcoin traded near $84,000 before testing the 100-week MA near $87,400. After facing rejection there, prices retreated toward the 50-week MA.
This places BTC in the identical position it held prior to the 2023 breakout: situated above the 50-week MA and below the 100-week MA while establishing a foundation. If this pattern holds true, the current consolidation phase may serve as a launchpad rather than a market peak.
Key Levels Bulls Need To Watch
Regarding support, the 50-week MA near $75,500 serves as the primary line of defense. Because Bitcoin is currently trading just above this benchmark, maintaining the level on a weekly closing basis is crucial.
Should that support fail, the next major floor is the 200-week MA, positioned around $67,800. Historical market cycles show this long-term average repeatedly acting as a reliable baseline during market corrections.
On the resistance side, the initial hurdle stands at $82,000, followed by the significant 100-week MA near $87,400.
According to the analyst, reclaiming and sustaining a position above the 100-week MA would pave the way for another substantial rally, mirroring the events of 2023.
Momentum Is Cooling, Not Breaking
Current momentum indicators point to a patient yet constructive market outlook.
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 50, indicating neutral territory while remaining safely above levels typically associated with bear markets. This signals that the overarching trend has merely cooled down rather than suffered a structural breakdown.
Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI displays a softer reading, hinting that short-term momentum may experience mild further contraction. The analyst suggests the RSI has room to drift down toward 44 ahead of Bitcoin’s next upward push. Such resets are standard during consolidation periods and frequently clear the path for more robust rallies.
The echoes of the 2023 setup are difficult to dismiss, though Bitcoin must first successfully defend its support levels.
What do you think happens next?
Is Bitcoin about to replay its 2023 breakout, or does it need one more dip toward $67,800 before the next leg up?
Written by
Yuki Yamamoto
