Despite the renewed downward pressure facing the price of Bitcoin following a recent market pullback, a prominent analyst argues that historical data provides grounds for cautious optimism. Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, has pointed out a technical formation that surfaced during two prior major market rebounds, indicating the cryptocurrency might steer clear of new bear-market lows.
In a November 9 post on X, Thorn drew attention to Bitcoin slipping underneath its 50-week moving average. Prior to losing this threshold, the digital asset had maintained its position above the key technical benchmark for seven straight weeks.
The analyst noted, however, that comparable events transpired in the 2011–2012 and 2019–2020 cycles. In each instance, Bitcoin managed to avoid recording a fresh bear-market low based on weekly closing figures.
For market participants unsettled by the recent downturn, this parallel prompts a vital question: Could this latest drop turn out to be another brief setback ahead of a wider recovery?
Bitcoin’s Historical Pattern Offers A Reason For Optimism
According to Thorn, the recent weekly close beneath the 50-week moving average mirrors trends witnessed in past market rebounds.
Because it helps gauge the longer-term trajectory of the market, the 50-week moving average is closely monitored by traders. A sustained holding above the threshold can point to strengthening momentum, whereas a breakdown often warns of returning selling activity.
Even so, Thorn’s evaluation implies that breaching this level does not automatically signal that Bitcoin is bound for another substantial market floor.
Alex Thorn’s original X post — November 9, 2026
bitcoin just closed below its 50 week moving average after holding above it for 7 consecutive weeks
two other times (2011-12 & 2019-20) btc closed below its 50w after reclaiming it post-bear bottom
neither of those times did the bear make a new lower low (weekly close data)
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins)
This historical parallel is particularly compelling given the heavy volatility Bitcoin has weathered recently, which has left investors questioning the durability of its rebound.
As earlier examinations of Bitcoin price action have shown, critical technical boundaries can heavily sway sentiment and dictate whether buyers can seize control.
Thorn cautioned, nevertheless, that historical analogies carry inherent limitations. The limited sample size—consisting of just five recoveries above the 50-week moving average—makes forecasting future price action with certainty challenging.
The analyst also conceded that pinpointing an absolute market bottom is only feasible in hindsight.
Can Bitcoin Reclaim The 50-Week Moving Average?
While the historical precedent provides some encouragement, Thorn emphasizes that the weeks immediately ahead will prove critical for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s weekly closing price falls below its 50-week moving average. Source: Alex Thorn.
In a subsequent post, he stated that his positive technical stance would remain intact if Bitcoin succeeds in recapturing the 50-week moving average within roughly a month.
This leaves the cryptocurrency with a narrow window to exhibit renewed buyer demand.
The weekly close for Bitcoin on November 8 sat around $74,968, tracking under its 50-week moving average of roughly $75,488. Meanwhile, the weekly closing low from June 2026 near $59,517 serves as an essential reference benchmark for the historical parallel.
A firm return above the moving average could reinforce the bullish thesis, especially as traders keep a close eye on major resistance levels and the prospect of a broader market resurgence.
Beyond technical metrics, Thorn’s outlook is also supported by fundamental factors. A previous report detailed a bullish investment case built on Bitcoin’s fundamentals, positioning, sentiment, and long-term viability.
Such elements could grow increasingly vital as market participants weigh whether the asset is nearing a fresh accumulation window.
First, however, Bitcoin must prove that buyers are capable of defending key support zones and reviving upward momentum.
For the time being, the 50-week moving average remains a primary technical marker to track. Should Bitcoin manage to recapture it soon, Thorn’s historical comparison could lend extra weight to a longer-term bullish outlook.
Uncertainty persists across the market, but the analyst’s insights indicate that this latest breakdown does not necessarily spell the end of the broader recovery.
Written by
Yuki Yamamoto
