Bitcoin is bleeding ahead of the biggest artificial intelligence listing in history. However, if the market mirrors the pattern established just five months ago, the downward pressure could soon exhaust itself.
BTC slipped under $67,000 this week, marking its lowest point since August, as market participants withdrew capital from spot ETFs leading up to the Anthropic IPO. Anthropic is scheduled to price its shares on Nov. 18 and commence trading on the Nasdaq on Nov. 19.
The central question within the crypto space is straightforward: are whales liquidating their bitcoin holdings to participate in the Anthropic IPO? Available data provides several indicators.
$2.35 Billion Leaves Bitcoin ETFs In Two Weeks
Based on information widely shared on X, approximately $2.35 billion has exited US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past fortnight. BlackRock’s IBIT spearheaded the outflow with 11 consecutive sessions of redemptions, accounting for roughly 90% of the redemptions seen in November.
The prevailing hypothesis suggests investors are liquidating assets to secure liquidity for their IPO allocations. Interest in Anthropic shares is immense, with order books reportedly oversubscribed by a factor of six for a capital raise reaching up to $64.4 billion.
Simultaneously, macroeconomic headwinds are increasing the strain. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller expressed backing for a December rate hike, driving CME FedWatch probabilities for such a move to 96.3%, while a broader technology sector sell-off impacted risk assets across the board. Bitcoin retreated below $70,000 earlier this week as liquidations surpassed $1.6 billion.
The SpaceX Playbook
A similar dynamic occurred previously. Ahead of SpaceX’s record $75 billion IPO in June, Bitcoin experienced an almost identical market cycle:
- Bitcoin declined by roughly 28% from its May peak.
- It established a bottom near $59,000 one week prior to the public offering.
- It advanced about 8% leading into the June 12 trading debut of SpaceX.
- It ultimately recorded a rally of approximately 37% from that cyclical low.
The market trough is well documented. Bitcoin traded as low as $59,375 on June 5, according to data from that period. Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick subsequently identified the cycle low, contending that heavy spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions—partially driven by capital allocation toward the SpaceX IPO—would likely subside once the listing went live.
The magnitude of that capital drain was substantial. More than $5.72 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows recorded since mid-May were attributed to investors freeing up funds for the SpaceX offering.
A Chart Shows Bitcoin Tracking The SpaceX Path
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen expanded on this correlation. In a post on X, he superimposed Bitcoin’s price trajectory 30 days before and after the SpaceX IPO onto its performance during the roughly 30 days preceding the Anthropic listing.
Both trendlines track nearly in tandem at the onset of the window, experiencing a minor decline of a few percentage points during the initial week.
Furthermore, the SpaceX precedent offers perspective regarding patience. On Cowen’s comparative chart, Bitcoin traded down about 20% by the day of the SpaceX listing and dropped to roughly 25% below its initial level in the subsequent weeks prior to stabilizing. The meaningful recovery materialized later, following the complete clearing of IPO-related selling pressure.
If this historical rhythm holds, additional selling could surface around Nov. 19. Nevertheless, it would also imply that the market resides in the concluding phases of its correction rather than the beginning.
Why The Anthropic IPO Could Hit Bitcoin Less Hard
Two distinct factors suggest the selling pressure might be muted on this occasion.
First, the retail segment allocation is smaller. Anthropic anticipates allocating up to 20% of its IPO shares to retail participants—representing roughly $11.55 billion to $12.87 billion based on its price range—derived from FourWeekMBA’s review of the company’s amended prospectus. By comparison, SpaceX initially targeted a retail allotment of about 30% for its much larger $75 billion transaction before reducing it to the low 20% bracket.
A reduced retail pool demands less capital generation, which otherwise might have involved liquidating cryptocurrency holdings.
Second, Anthropic’s separate $26 billion private placement is financed by its core compute suppliers, including Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft. That capital originates from corporate balance sheets rather than the shared pool of retail and institutional investor funds that could otherwise reside in bitcoin.
Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch
For the bulls, the initial threshold to reclaim is $70,000, which would signal buyers re-entering the market following a volatile week.
Succeeding that, the $76,000 region represents the subsequent major barrier, followed by the resistance corridor spanning $80,000 to $82,000.
Conversely, the weekly low near $67,000 serves as the primary support level to maintain. A decisive breakdown beneath this mark could clear a path toward the $59,000 to $60,000 zone, mirroring the exact area where Bitcoin found its bottom prior to the SpaceX debut.
Even so, the IPO is not the exclusive market catalyst. Should Federal Reserve policy decisions and tech sector liquidations continue driving investors away from risk assets, the cessation of IPO-related selling alone will prove insufficient to reverse Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Written by
Yuki Yamamoto
