Before a single vote was even tallied, Bitcoin surpassed its most telling election-day marker. Trading near $76,990 on the morning of November 3, BTC sat approximately $3,821 above its 200-day moving average. During the three prior U.S. midterm election days, Bitcoin consistently traded beneath that crucial benchmark.
Consequently, investors now have a much more significant figure to monitor this week than the $77,000 mark. Hovering around $73,169, the 200-day average represents the boundary where Bitcoin’s broader trend has historically shifted to favor buyers. The upcoming midterm outcomes and Friday’s U.S. employment report are set to challenge how much of that advantage BTC can preserve.
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What Changed Between the 2022 and 2026 Midterms?
A single statistic highlights the significance of this week’s Bitcoin developments. During the 2022 midterms, BTC was valued roughly 22% under its 200-day average, whereas it rested 5.2% above that line on Tuesday morning. This represents a 27.2-percentage-point swing in Bitcoin’s standing against its own trend. Even in 2018—the most robust reading among the three preceding midterms—the asset still registered 9% beneath the moving average.
This distinction remains crucial despite BTC’s recent dip under $77,000. Moving from $77,000 to $76,990 merely crosses a prominent psychological threshold by a mere ten dollars. At that exact valuation, Bitcoin maintained nearly $3,800 of cushion above its 200-day average. For individuals tracking Bitcoin prices, these dual comparisons paint distinctly different pictures of the identical trade.
Bitcoin Gained After All Three Midterms. This Time It Has a Head Start
Historically, Bitcoin closed higher exactly one year following the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterms. Data from CoinDesk indicates that across these three cycles, the mean increase reached 53.7%, calculated from the election-day close to the corresponding date twelve months later. This formula leaves out 2010, when the nascent Bitcoin market’s massive returns would have skewed the dataset.
The fascinating aspect lies in the starting points of those prior surges. On all three prior occasions, market participants approached election day with BTC positioned below its extended moving average. Conversely, a portion of this year’s rebound has already materialized. Consequently, 2026 presents an opportunity to observe whether Bitcoin can extend an ongoing recovery in the wake of the midterms. Because a sample size of three elections provides minimal justification for converting that 53.7% historical average into an absolute price target—particularly since all three coincided with identical phases of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle—caution is warranted.
Why Friday’s Jobs Report Could Tell Investors More Than Election Night
Market participants should also mark Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on their calendars, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the October employment data. These payroll figures supply traders with fresh data points to evaluate against shifting projections for Federal Reserve interest rates. Furthermore, the report subjects Bitcoin to a secondary test within the same week, arriving just as markets digest the election outcomes.
Interpreting Friday’s market response comes down to practical metrics. While a temporary return to $77,000 will easily capture headlines, sustaining a weekly close above the revised 200-day average—surviving both the election and the jobs release—provides investors with much greater insight: definitive proof that Bitcoin’s most robust midterm starting position since 2014 successfully weathered two distinct catalysts.
Written by
Yuki Yamamoto
