Following a turbulent week, Bitcoin has entered a quiet phase, and chart analysts believe this stillness could pave the way for an upward breakout.
Our Bitcoin technical analysis shows that BTC is currently changing hands at $75,865, reflecting a 0.41% daily decline within a narrow band between $75,645 and $75,979. This 0.4% daily fluctuation comes on the heels of a week that saw an AI-triggered sell-off push Bitcoin back toward the crucial $76,000 threshold.
Over the past week, the asset has fallen 3.2%, and it remains down 7.2% across the last month. Even so, two prominent analysts are now pointing to emerging bullish indicators on both short- and long-term charts.
Below is a comprehensive breakdown of BTC technical analysis alongside current trader sentiment on X.
Analyst Spots A 4H Bullish Checkmate Setup
Crypto analyst Cheds Trading shared an optimistic perspective on X, highlighting Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart and pointing to a developing bullish checkmate formation.
The shared chart displays a prominent red capitulation candle that erased the early-November gains, followed by a sequence of small-bodied candles consolidating sideways near the lower Bollinger Band. Selling pressure has diminished, trading volume has receded, and prices have ceased posting significant new lows.
Such compression following a steep drop frequently indicates that sellers are losing momentum. Should buyers step in, this tight corridor can resolve in a sharp upward surge.
Short-term metrics reinforce this outlook. On the hourly timeframe, BTC’s technical summary registers as a Buy, while technical oscillators indicate a Strong Buy with seven buy signals against just a single sell signal.
Bitcoin Reclaims A Nine-Year Trendline
The broader macro outlook is likewise turning more favorable. An analyst known as Part-Time Trader published a post on X noting that Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed a nine-year trendline he has monitored for months, citing it as the primary reason he has adopted a bullish stance on crypto.
This trendline connects major historical cycle lows for Bitcoin, encompassing the 2018-2019 bottom, the March 2020 crash, and the late-2022 bear market trough. Historically, each test and bounce off this line has preceded a major rally.
The analyst’s chart projects a new leg upward from these levels, carrying Bitcoin toward fresh all-time highs. However, he cautioned that the rally will not persist indefinitely, anticipating that the advance will ultimately disappoint as altcoins outperform before Bitcoin eventually collapses when the global debt bubble bursts.
Nevertheless, maintaining a position above this long-term support keeps the overarching bullish structure intact for now.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis Across Timeframes
Technical signals vary depending on the timeframe examined, with short-term charts shifting bullish while the daily chart continues to display the impact of last week’s correction.
| Timeframe | Signal |
|---|---|
| 30 minutes | Strong Buy |
| Hourly | Buy |
| 5 hours | Strong Sell |
| Daily | Strong Sell |
| Weekly | Neutral |
| Monthly | Neutral |
On the hourly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49.4, residing squarely in neutral territory to leave ample room for movement in either direction. Meanwhile, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 109 and the Williams %R at -28 both point to buy signals.
Conversely, the Stochastic RSI has climbed to 80.4, signaling overbought conditions, and the MACD remains slightly negative at -32. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 21 indicates the absence of a definitive trend at present, while the Average True Range (ATR) at 153 suggests subdued volatility. Such compressed volatility typically precedes a substantial market move.
Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch
BTC is currently trading directly over its short-term moving averages. The hourly 5, 10, and 20-period moving averages cluster between $75,811 and $75,864, offering immediate support.
On the upside, the initial barrier is the hourly 50-period exponential moving average near $76,108. Beyond that, the 100 and 200-period moving averages spanning $76,647 to $77,410 represent the critical resistance corridor. A decisive breakthrough above $77,400 would validate Cheds’ checkmate setup and pave the way toward $78,500 alongside the $80,000 to $82,000 zone.
Looking downward, standard pivot supports are located at $75,859, $75,756, and $75,696. A drop beneath $75,000 would expose the $74,000 liquidity region and bring the nine-year trendline back into focus.
Bitcoin remains down 25.8% over the past year, with its 52-week trading range stretching from $57,833 to $107,461. At the same time, it is up 16.8% over the last three months, serving as a reminder that the medium-term uptrend is still preserved.
For more market updates, follow the latest Bitcoin price analysis.
What do you think happens next?
Will Bitcoin’s bullish checkmate setup trigger a breakout above $77,400, or does BTC need to retest $74,000 first?
Written by
Yuki Yamamoto
